One of ESP Consulting's partners, Andrew Chattrabhuti helped the company quantify the risk that would be borne under the terms of a major potential LNG offtake contract (approximately 10 bcma).
As part of the assignment, Andrew worked with the company’s LNG analyst to identify key potential market, credit and operational risks that the trading organisation faced and to develop assumptions about the probability and severity of these incidents. Andrew then used Monte-Carlo techniques to simulate the risk distribution resulting from this stand-alone deal over the twenty five year deal life and to estimate the company’s expected losses, the amount of economic capital required to be reserved against unexpected losses and a cost of risk to be built into the purchase price formula.